Thursday, May 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes and firmer crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that in the coming weeks the U.S. stock indexes will trade in a more choppy and less-trending fashion, with U.S. Treasuries doing the same.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading. Bulls and bears are struggling for the near-term level technical advantage, with neither having much of an edge at present.
June S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,405.30. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,400.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,421.50 and then at 1,425.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,405.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,409.45
1st Support:------ 1,397.40
2nd Support:------ 1,386.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,419.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,431.95
June Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,985.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,962.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 2,010.00 and then at 2,020.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,990.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,008.20
1st Support:------ 1,983.35
2nd Support:------ 1,970.20
1st Resistance:--- 2,021.35
2nd Resistance:--- 2,046.20
June Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,860 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 12,775. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,000 and then just above resistance at the May high of 13,120. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 12,908
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE DOW:
Pivot:------------ 12,911
1st Support:------ 12,828
2nd Support:------ 12,776
1st Resistance:--- 12,963
2nd Resistance:--- 13,046
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 115 26/32 and then at 116 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 9/32 and then at this week's low of 115 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 3/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 115 24/32
1st Support:----- 115 2/32
2nd Support:----- 114 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 116 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 117 3/32
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 114.25.5 and then above resistance at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.16.0 and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of 114.10.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.03.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR JUNE T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 114.24.0
1st Support:------ 114.10.0
2nd Support:------ 113.27.0
1st Resistance:--- 115.07.0
2nd Resistance:--- 115.21.0