Tuesday, September 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The tail was really wagging the dog Monday--meaning a big "short squeeze" that drove the expiring October crude oil futures contract price sharply higher spilled over into solid gains for many other commodity markets and helped drive down the value of the U.S. dollar, which in turn helped drive U.S. stock indexes lower. Now, this morning Monday's price action is starting to unwind a bit as crude prices are backing off. If crude oil closes sharply lower today, then technical odds will increase that the recent surge higher in crude prices was just a corrective bounce in a still down-trending market. Other commodity markets will continue to ride the coattails of crude oil, either up or down in price.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading, after strong losses Monday. The bears have fresh downside technical momentum on their side.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,190.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,219.40 and then at 1,230.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,190.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,223.05
1st Support:------ 1,196.10
2nd Support:------ 1,178.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,240.80
2nd Resistance:--- 1,267.75
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 1,665.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,650.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,685.00 and then at 1,700.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,678.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,695.35
1st Support:------ 1,639.40
2nd Support:------ 1,608.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,725.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,781.60
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 11,000 and then more stops just below support at 10,950. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,100 and then just above resistance at 11,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 11,037
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 11,149
1st Support:------ 10,914
2nd Support:------ 10,764
1st Resistance:--- 11,299
2nd Resistance:--- 11,534
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are weaker today. December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 28/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 even and then at Monday's low of 116 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 7/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 11/32
1st Support:----- 116 8/32
2nd Support:----- 115 11/32
1st Resistance:-- 118 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 119 11/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.14.5 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 114.30.5 and then at Monday's low of 114.16.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.12.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 1/32
1st Support:----- 114 14/32
2nd Support:----- 113 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 18/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 5/32