Thursday, September 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Now that Monday's big "short squeeze" in the October crude oil futures contract, in which the nearby crude oil futures prices posted a record one-day gain, is being recognized as just that and nothing more, commodity market traders are focusing more on the ramifications of worldwide de-leveraging and sputtering economies. Read that as less demand for commodities, which is bearish.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are mostly firmer in early morning trading. The bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side. On the daily bar charts for the stock indexes, I still see bearish diamond patterns that have formed the past couple weeks.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday's low of 1,180.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,170.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,203.60 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,210.10. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,190.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,194.55
1st Support:------ 1,179.00
2nd Support:------ 1,164.95
1st Resistance:--- 1,208.60
2nd Resistance:--- 1,224.20
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,666.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week's low of 1,648.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,693.75 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,701.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,678.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,668.35
1st Support:------ 1,653.70
2nd Support:------ 1,635.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,686.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,701.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,800 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 10,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 10,900 and then just above resistance at 10,950. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,891
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,843
1st Support:------ 10,767
2nd Support:------ 10,673
1st Resistance:--- 10,937
2nd Resistance:--- 11,013
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are lower today. December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 4/32 and then at 117 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 116 13/32 and then at 116 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 27/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 117 12/32
1st Support:----- 116 21/32
2nd Support:----- 116 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 117 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 118 21/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.05.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week's low of 114.16.5 and then at 114.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.18.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 115 5/32
1st Support:----- 114 21/32
2nd Support:----- 114 2/32
1st Resistance:-- 115 24/32
2nd Resistance:-- 116 8/32